Nicholashayne trainer David Pipe has a respectable 12-67 (18%) strike rate with his hurdlers at Newbury over the last five seasons, for a level stakes profit of 22.46, and Kalifourchon appears to have an excellent chance of improving that record in the Bet365.com Novices’ Handicap Hurdle (1.35) at Newbury on Thursday.
The Martaline gelding was still bang in contention when unseating his rider at Sandown last time and had previously been on an upward curve, so deserves a chance to make amends. He remains 8lb higher in the weights than when winning at Uttoxeter on his penultimate start, but is eased in grade, albeit slightly, and can win his fourth race from five starts under Tom Scudamore this season.
By contrast, Milborne Port trainer Colin Tizzard has a fairly dismal 2-33 (6%) strike rate with his steeplechasers at the Berkshire course, for a level stakes loss of 26.25 points. However, that fact alone shouldn’t count against Native River, who otherwise has plenty going for him in the Bet365 Novices’ Chase (2.10). Rated 145 over hurdles, the Indian River gelding has made an excellent start to his chasing career and can continue his progress.
Selections: Newbury 1.35 Kalifourchon, Newbury 2.35 Native River (win double)
Crazy Chic was beaten on his only visit to Chelmsford, in May, but that defeat came over 6 furlongs and the son of Exceed And Excel has since taken his form to a new level over 7 furlongs. His half-a-length defeat of Hold Tight at Lingfield three weeks ago – with subsequent winner Dutiful Son back in fourth – was the best we’ve seen from him and, in his current mood, may be able to complete a hat-trick in the Scoop6soccer Handicap (6.05) at Chelmsford on Thursday.
Clondaw Banker started favourite for the race won by Old Guard at Cheltenham last month, but could only finish sixth of eleven, beaten 9¼ lengths behind the winner. However, the Court Cave gelding made amends when winning a conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle at Sandown eleven days ago, a victory for which he escapes a penalty. His previous form also took on new significance when Old Guard followed up in the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham on Sunday so, despite stepping up in class, Clondaw Banker is quite a confident selection in the Lord Tennyson Handicap Hurdle (2.05) at Market Rasen.
Selections: Chelmsford 6.05 Crazy Chic, Market Rasen 2.05 Clondaw Banker (win double)
Nothing succeeds like success, or so the saying goes, so in the hope of a nice payday this week we’ve come up with three selections, each of which is seeking a hat-trick and each of which is, coincidentally, facing similar opposition to last time.
Love The Leader completed a four-timer over hurdles and fences in the space of twelve days last month and can take his winning tally to five in the Totequadpot Four Places in Four Races Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (2.10) at Taunton on Thursday. The handicapper has had his say, raising the gelding 14lb for his most recent success, but Johnny Farrelly’s 7-year-old should benefit from stepping back up to 2 miles 7 furlongs and there’s no telling where his improvement could end.
Helium has returned to action in fine form and can defy a 7lb penalty in the Support the Ludlow On Course Bookmakers Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (2.00) at Ludlow. Aleaxandra Dunn’s 10-year-old failed to trouble the judge in five starts over hurdles last season, but is 2-3 over fences this season and ran on well to win by 4½ lengths over course and distance ten days ago, despite being hampered on the bend at the top of the home straight.
Last, but hopefully not least, Charlies Mate appears to have improved for the drop back to a mile on his two most recent starts and is another who can defy a 7lb rise in the weights in the Win a Football Fortune with Scoop6 Soccer Handicap (6.55) at Chelmsford. The Myboycharlie gelding has finished outside the first three just three times in his last fifteen starts and won on his only previous visit to Chelmsford two starts ago.
Selections: Taunton 2.10 Love The Leader, Ludlow 2.00 Helium, Chelmsford 6.55 Charlies Mate (3 x win doubles, 1 x win treble)