November 2016

The Crabbie’s Alcoholic Ginger Beer Handicap (5.15) at Newcastle on Friday looks competitive enough for the grade, but Horsforth is 2-2 on synthetic surfaces, including over course and distance in September and may be progressive enough to complete a hat-trick. The Kyllachy filly has been raised 4lb in the weights for winning at Nottingham earlier this month, but her earlier defeat of Zipedeedodah at Chelmsford has been franked by runner-up, who won in this grade at Wolverhampton last Saturday, so she hardly looks overburdened. Conor Beasley has won on four of his last 11 rides for Richard Guest, including Horsforth herself, and the ‘miracle jockey’ – who fractured his skull and spine and suffered a neck injury in a horrific fall at Wolverhampton in July 2015 – can chalk up another victory.

The Strongarm – The Northern Legend Apprentice Handicap (6.45) is another dog-eat-dog contest, but Richard Guest appears to have another decent chance with Lady Bacchus, who opened her account over 5 furlongs at Gosforth Park 10 days ago and appears fully effective over an extra furlong. The Compton Place filly showed next to nothing in her first half a dozen starts, but she’s bred to be a decent sprinter and, now that the penny has finally dropped, may be able to defy a 6lb penalty in another ordinary race.

Selections: Newcastle 5.15 Horsforth, Newcastle 6.45 Lady Bacchus, 1-point Win Double

There are no Premier League or Championship fixtures this weekend because of the international break, but there’s plenty of action from League 1 and League 2, so we’ve decided to have a dabble in the BTTS market for our multiple bet.

Coventry City versus Scunthorpe United (3/4)

Coventry are unbeaten at home in League 1, scoring 9 goals, 8 of which have come in their last 4 games at the Ricoh Arena. Table-topping Scunthorpe have scored 15 goals in 8 away games, but conceded 10.

Oldham Athletic versus AFC Wimbledon (10/11)

Oldham have struggled for goals at Boundary Park, scoring just 4, and conceding 9, in 8 League 1 fixtures. Wimbledon, on the other hand, have picked up more points, and scored more goals (12), away than they have at home this season, but has also conceded 9 goals.

Port Vale versus Fleetwood Town (3/4)

A good honest, mid-table clash between two teams who score often enough, but also concede goals on a regular basis. Port Vale have scored 14 goals and conceded 8 at home, while Fleetwood have scored 9 goals and conceded 11 away.

Shrewsbury Town versus Oxford United (7/10)

Leaky defences, rather than goal scoring prowess, has been the order of the day for both sides; Shrewsbury have conceded 1.9 goals per game at home, while Oxford have conceded 1.5 goals away.

Crawley Town versus Cambridge United (4/5)

Down in League 2, Crawley have been beaten just once at home this season, but have still conceded a goal a game, while Cambridge have kept a clean sheet away from home just once in seven matches.

Crewe Alexandra versus Plymouth Argyle (4/6)

Crewe have also been beaten just once at home this season, but still conceded 7 goals in as many games. Plymouth have scored 12 goals, and conceded just 4, in 7 away games and currently top the League 2 table, but those 4 goals came in their last three matches.

Recommended Bet: 6 x 1-point 5-folds, 1 x 1-point 6-fold

Twice a winner over hurdles last season, Wade Harper made a respectable, if unspectacular, start to his career over fences at Carlisle three weeks ago and can demonstrate the benefit of that experience in the Bet365 Handicap Chase (2.00) at Newbury on Thursday. The Westerner gelding was rallying when hitting the fourth last at Carlisle and, although he could make no further impression, eventually finishing fourth of seven, beaten 21 lengths, behind subsequent winner Double W’s, he looks a potential improver.

Copper Kay didn’t have to be at her best to land odds of 1/6 at Ffos Las last month and was occasionally less than fluent on her hurdling debut, but her bumper form entitles her to maximum respect and she can take another step forward in the Whitley Stud Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (2.35) at Newbury. Trainer Philip Hobbs has a strong hand in this division this season and she’s bred to be a champion.

Peter The Mayo Man looks ever inch a chaser in the making, but has returned to action in excellent form over hurdles and can complete a hat-trick in the KKA-Highpoint Handicap Hurdle (3.45) at Newbury. The Dylan Thomas gelding had been absent, due to injury, since turned over at odds-on at Bangor in March, but looked better than ever when winning a novices’ hurdle at Warwick five weeks ago and looks reasonably weighted on his handicap debut.

Selections: Newbury 2.00 Wade Harper, Newbury 2.35 Copper Kay, Newbury 3.45 Pete The Mayo Man (3 x 1-point Win Doubles, 1 x 1-point Win Treble)