The Stats That Could Lead to a Big-Price Winner in the Supreme Novices Hurdle

The Supreme Novices Hurdle brings the curtain up on Cheltenham 2018 and punters have a real chance to get off to a flyer with odds compilers seemingly at a loss to nail down the winner. Labaik stole the show last year for Gordon Elliott and Jack Kennedy off a monster 25/1 but there’s no hope of two-in-a-row.

 

Getabird is favourite in the antepost betting across the board, with williamhill.com marking the six-year-old up at 11/8 the weekend before the race. Willie Mullins’ gelding has been a popular pick of those looking to beat the rush and get their money down early, but we’ve seen in past renewals of this contest that being favourite doesn’t always guarantee success.

 

Here are some trends you should know about before sticking your neck on the line…..

 

Forget the fav – take a chance on a bigger price

 

The jolly has failed to deliver in each of the last two runnings of the Supreme Novices. Labaik’s win was preceded by Altior the year before at 4/1. In fact – and this one is worth sitting down for – only two favourites have won this race 13 renewals, and even one of those was joint-fav, Vautour (2014). That stat alone will be enough to scare shrewd backers off the market leader.

 

Mullins threat must be respected

 

Trainer Willie Mullins does have a fearsome reputation in this race and it’ll be a brave punter who opposes him, the star trainer winning three of the last five. He left empty-handed in each of the last two races but did win three on the bounce, Champagne Fever (2013), Vautour (2014) and Douvan (2015). All three victors were short in the betting, with no better than 5/1 the SP.

 

Each of last two winners have been six-year-olds

 

Six has been the magic number in recent times with a six-year-old winning the last two Supreme Novices, and half of the last 10. Will we get a hat-trick and, if so, who’s the runner to deliver it? It remains to be seen if he’ll run in the race, or target another Cheltenham challenge, but Samcro is a six-year-old who is more than capable of carrying the baton. Not only does the age fit but he’s guided by last year’s winning trainer Gordon Elliott and brings a 100% win record from six previous starts. Chalked up as a 6/4 second favourite but there’s few in a rush to write him off.

 

Early betting makes Summerville Boy worth a look

 

If you prefer to keep your stakes low and take a chance on something at a bigger price you may be interested to learn that the Supreme Novices is no stranger to an upset, giving five winners at double-figure odds in the last decade. Labaik was 25/1 SP last year but, in that period, there has been 2x 10/1 winners and a couple at 12/1. William Hill have one 10/1 shot in the antepost field – Summerville Boy, and one at 12/1 – Mengli Khan.

 

The Stats That Could Lead to a Big-Price Winner in the Supreme Novices Hurdle

 

 

Six horse accumulator

Six horse accumulator A Coral punter from Buckinghamshire made a tidy sum in January after picking an impressive five winners with a very modest £1 bet. The beer money bet involved picking six selections as part of a 50p accumulator on races at Kempton and Hereford. One selection was a non runner but the others all romped home, many at enviable odds (one at 20-1), resulting in the anonymous man winning the tidy sum of £135,349.20.

The 41 year old, whose previous biggest win was £500, didn’t actually watch the races live, instead checking the results after and evidentally struggling to take it all in at first.

“I even logged out and back in again, just to check it was real.” he said.

“I actually had one non-runner, but while it could have won and increased my winnings massively, it could also have lost and I’d have won nothing, so I’m not dwelling on that at all, my glass is definitely full right now!”

The selections in full:

Hereford 12.20 – Royale Zanzibar at 12-1 (8-1 when bet was placed)

Hereford 2.00 – Clondaw Rigger 7-1 (took 8-1)

Hereford 3.05 – Cougar Kid 12-1 (took 20-1)

Kempton 4.35 – Mercers 10-1 (took 13-2)

Kempton 7.10 – General Brook 15-2 (took 9-1)

Kempton 5.10 – Daring Guest  non-runner

 

 

 

 

 

Grand National 2018 Overview

Grand National 2018 Overview Every year there are handful of racing events that capture the imagination of the great British public. Royal Ascot is a favourite of many, and of course who hasn’t heard of ‘ladies day’? The Cheltenham Festival too, is now imminent and right up there with the most exciting racing festivals, not only in the UK but worldwide. The Cheltenham Gold Cup, with its price money of £600,000+ is testament enough to the pedigree of those taking part in this illustrious four day event. For most though, the real cherry on the cake of UK racing is and has always been The Grand National, held annual at the Aintree racecourse in Liverpool.

 

This prestigious event has been held every year for around 180 years now (aside from being voided in 1993 due to a false start fiasco) , which alone a mind boggling fact, and goes to show how and why this event has built up such a dedicated following over the years. Millions upon millions of Brits tune in every year to watch the Grand National on TV, or if they’re lucky, at the aintree course (which has an impressive capacity of 75,000 – just out of the top 10 biggest capacity racecourses on the planet) . Some have their eye on a huge priced outsider, others sick to The Grand National Favourites like glue. We all have our own approach.

 

Run over a distance of 4 miles 514 yards, and with horses jumping 30 fences, the race attracts the cream of the crop of the racing world. With prize money topping £1,000,000 last year for good reason many trainers have one eye on the Grand National many months before it even takes place. To win it gets you written into the history books and is an accolade that money simply can buy.

 

So where to place your pennies or pounds? From those interested in a casual flutter all the way to professional gamblers at the other end of the scale, all punters have to take their chance and make their choice. Some don’t have much in the way of a system (‘the close your eyes and point’ crowd), whereas others take their time to study the form and follow particular trainers or horses.

 

Outsiders have been known to upset at the National with a handful of 100-1 winners over the years (including consecutive 100-1 winners in the 1928 – 1929 Nationals). If you’re more one for the favourites though, this year you’ll likely have your eye on the likes of Total Recall and Blaklion, effectively joint favourites at around 10-1. There’s not exactly been a torrent of favourites winning the Grand National in recent years, though interestingly joint favourites did win in 2008 and 2010, so it may be that competition may spur on those deemed most capable of winning. Time will tell!